The Tonga Meteorological Service has expanded meteorological drought declarations across Tonga as a strong to very strong El Niño is forecast to bring prolonged dry conditions over the coming months.
In its latest Meteorological Drought Outlook, issued Wednesday, the Service said drought declarations are in place for Ha’apai, Tongatapu and ‘Eua, while Niuatoputapu is under a Drought Warning and Vava’u and Niuafo’ou remain under Drought Alert.
The outlook follows significantly below-average rainfall. July was classified as dry across Tonga, with seriously dry conditions recorded in Tongatapu and ‘Eua. Over the past three months, dry conditions affected all island groups, with seriously dry conditions in Ha’apai, Tongatapu and ‘Eua.
The Service forecasts very dry conditions across Tonga in August, with an 80–100 percent chance of very dry conditions nation-wide over August to October.
The outlook shows the situation could worsen in the north. Niuafo’ou is forecast to move from Drought Alert to Drought Warning by the end of August and Drought Declaration by September.
Niuatoputapu is forecast to reach Drought Declaration by August, while Vava’u could reach that level by October. Ha’apai, Tongatapu and ‘Eua are expected to remain under drought declaration throughout the period.
The Service warns that prolonged drought could reduce household water supplies, deplete groundwater, increase pressure on agriculture and livestock, and affect food production and household incomes.
Health, education and essential services may also face increased pressure, particularly in outer islands.
The Meteorological Service says the current El Niño could rank among the strongest observed since 1950, although forecast confidence varies between island groups.
