The Autonomous Bougainville Government(ABG) has placed Bougainville on ‘high watch’ for drought and water-security risks as an El Niño event increases the likelihood of prolonged below-normal rainfall.
The ABG, through the Disaster and Emergency Services of the Department of Community Government, District Affairs and Emergency Disaster Services, issued the alert following advice from the PNG National Weather Service.
Climate information indicates an 80 to 90 percent probability of below-normal rainfall across Bougainville from September to November 2026, with El Niño conditions expected to remain active through the rest of the year.
The ABG says the situation is being treated as an elevated drought and water-security risk rather than normal seasonal conditions.
Particular concern has been raised over household water supplies, food gardens, food security and remote island communities.
Prolonged dry conditions could further deplete rainwater tanks and other household water sources, reduce agricultural and food-garden production, increase pressure on household food supplies and create greater demand for emergency water assistance.
The ABG also warns of possible deterioration in water quality, increased health and nutrition risks and greater humanitarian and logistical requirements, particularly in remote communities.
Outer-island communities are considered particularly vulnerable because of limited access to alternative water sources, transport and essential services.
The Nissan-Atolls and other outer-island communities in Northern Bougainville will receive priority monitoring and preparedness attention because of their existing vulnerabilities and exposure to climate-related risks.
However, the ABG says other areas, including South and Central Bougainville, may experience different weather patterns from Northern Bougainville and the Nissan Atolls.
Drought risks are being monitored across the entire region, with the level of impact expected to vary depending on rainfall deficits, water availability, crop conditions and household food stocks.
Over the next two to four weeks, the Directorate of Disaster and Emergency will maintain a **HIGH WATCH** status, strengthen local monitoring and conduct rapid assessments in vulnerable communities.
Weekly drought monitoring and reporting through districts and community governments will also be strengthened.
The ABG will also finalise its Drought Contingency Plan to identify priority preparedness and early-response measures.
Monitoring and preparedness will be escalated in RED-priority outer-island communities, particularly where declining water sources and food-security concerns are reported.
The Department of Community Government and District Affairs has activated monitoring and reporting through Community Governments, district administrations, ABG sector leads and partners to assess conditions over the coming weeks and months.
Communities are being urged to monitor household water supplies, protect available water sources, conserve water and monitor food gardens.
They are also encouraged to report emerging water shortages, food-security concerns and other drought-related impacts through their Community Governments and district authorities.
The ABG has urged the public to follow official information and advisories from the PNG National Weather Service and the Autonomous Bougainville Government and avoid relying on unverified information.
The current operational decision is to maintain Bougainville at high watchfor drought and water-security risks through 2026, with RED priority monitoring and preparedness for vulnerable outer-island communities.
The ABG stressed that the alert does not mean all communities are currently experiencing severe drought.
Instead, it is intended to support early action and preparedness as forecasts point to a heightened risk of worsening dry conditions.
The Directorate of Disaster and Emergency will continue to provide updates as new rainfall, climate and community assessment information becomes available.
