Pacific Island countries are strengthening efforts to respond to the growing impacts of climate change on tuna stocks, economies and livelihoods, with projections of high seas tuna shifts reinforced and new economic modelling underway to quantify what’s at stake.
Officials from Pacific Island countries involved in the Green Climate Fund-funded Regional Tuna Programme (GCF – FP259) welcomed early progress on a new Advanced Warning System (AWS), designed to help countries better understand and prepare for the impacts of climate- driven tuna redistribution.
Preliminary outputs of the system were presented during the 142nd Officials Meeting of the Forum Fisheries Committee (FFC) in Wellington, Aotearoa New Zealand. The Pacific Community (SPC) is the Executing Entity for FP259, working with technical partners including the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) and Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).
Early findings reinforced concerns that skipjack tuna – the backbone of the world’s largest tuna fishery and a major source of government revenue for many Pacific Island countries, are expected to increasingly move away from Pacific Island exclusive economic zones (EEZs) into the high seas as ocean temperatures continue to rise.
For Pacific countries, tuna supports far more than fisheries alone.
Income from tuna helps fund schools, hospitals, infrastructure and other essential government services, while many coastal communities rely on tuna resources for food security and livelihoods.
Dr Roseti Imo, Acting Chief Executive Officer for Fisheries Division in the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries in Samoa, said it was important for fisheries experts and climate scientists to work together closely as countries prepare for the growing impacts of climate change.
“We need to ensure there is a shared understanding of what climate change means for our fisheries resources and for the livelihoods that depend on them,” Dr Imo said.
The Advanced Warning System is being developed to provide countries with stronger scientific evidence and climate intelligence to better assess how shifting tuna stocks could affect their economies and communities in the years ahead.
The system is also expected to help countries identify adaptation pathways and strengthen negotiations internationally to protect the socio-economic benefits Pacific people currently receive from tuna resources.
Officials at the FFC meeting in Wellington noted that the underlying climate projections informing this work appear more pessimistic than those previously reported, reinforcing calls for urgent global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference COP31 in 2026.
Glen Joseph, Director of the Marshall Islands Marine Resources Authority, said the Advanced Warning System was already proving valuable in helping countries understand both current and future climate- related impacts.
“This tool is critical not only for evaluating adaptation options, but also for providing the evidence countries need to access climate finance,” Joseph said.
He said the system would also help countries present stronger evidence to international funding mechanisms as they seek support for climate adaptation measures.
Dr Josie Tamate, current Chair of the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and senior advisor for Niue, said regional cooperation would remain essential as the work progresses.
“There has been encouraging early progress, but there is still much work ahead to ensure these tools can support both regional and national decision-making,” Dr Tamate said.
Development of the Advanced Warning System is being supported through the Green Climate Fund Regional Tuna Programme under Component B of FP259, which aims to strengthen resilience to climate change impacts on tuna fisheries across the Pacific.
FFA Director-General Noan David Pakop said, “Pacific Island countries have spent decades working together to sustainably manage the world’s largest tuna fishery. As climate change continues to alter ocean conditions and influence the movement of tuna stocks, our members need the best available science and tools to prepare for what lies ahead.”
“The Green Climate Fund Regional Tuna Programme is an important investment in the resilience of Pacific communities and economies, supporting stronger climate intelligence, improved adaptation planning and great food security. The Advanced Warning System will help countries better understand future risks and opportunities, ensuring decisions are informed by robustic scientific evidence and that the benefits from tuna continue to flow to Pacific people,” Pakop added.
Early progress on the system was also made possible through support from New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) under the Climate Science for Ensuring Pacific Tuna Access (CSEPTA) initiative. The funding helped SPC and FFA begin the groundwork for the system before approval of the GCF programme.
As Pacific countries prepare for future global climate negotiations, officials say the message from the region is becoming increasingly clear – climate change is no longer a future threat to Pacific tuna fisheries, but a growing reality already affecting the region and its people.
