The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says the next phase of the global energy transition must focus on electrification, renewable energy expansion and a faster move away from fossil fuels as rising geopolitical tensions and volatile fuel markets reshape the global energy sector.
In a new report released with the Brazilian COP30 Presidency ahead of the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, IRENA warned that current global energy systems are “structurally unprepared” to meet the 1.5°C climate target.
The report, Transitioning away from fossil fuels: A roadmap based on renewables, electrification and grid enhancement, says global targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030 remain critical, but are no longer enough on their own.
As energy demand rises across transport, industry, buildings and digitalisation, IRENA says countries must accelerate electrification while reducing fossil fuel dependence.
IRENA’s revised 1.5°C roadmap projects electricity use in global energy consumption will rise from 23 percent today to 35 percent by 2035 and more than 50 percent by 2050, with most new demand supplied by renewables.
At the same time, fossil fuels are projected to fall from 80 percent of global energy use today to 50 percent by 2035 and 20 percent or less by 2050.
“The world must adapt to a new energy reality,” said IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera.
“Beyond the goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency lies the wider challenge of transforming entire energy systems and reducing fossil fuel use across supply and demand. Electrification and fossil fuel phase-out are inseparable and must advance together.”
La Camera said renewable-powered electrification would strengthen energy security, reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and improve economic competitiveness.
“IRENA’s revised roadmap clearly shows that electrification with renewables serves multiple policy goals. It contributes to climate mitigation, enhances energy security by boosting independence from imported fossil fuels and bolsters economic competitiveness through the creation of new industrial value chains and innovation,” he said.
“Furthermore, cost-competitive renewables support affordable electricity prices for households and industry.”
The report said electrification was becoming the main driver behind the decline of fossil fuel use across major sectors but warned that global infrastructure was not keeping pace.
IRENA said about 2,500 gigawatts of wind and solar projects were currently waiting for grid connections worldwide.
The agency estimates grid investment needs will rise to US$1.2 trillion annually, more than double the US$500 billion invested in 2025.
The report also highlighted the need for major investment in hydrogen supply chains, electric vehicle charging, building retrofits, industrial electrification and energy storage systems.
“The speed of the fossil fuel phase out will ultimately be determined by how quickly economies electrify,” La Camera said.
“To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, the world needs a clear global direction of travel. IRENA data supports the establishment of a global electrification target for 2035, complemented by targets for grids and system flexibility.”
IRENA said the roadmap would support discussions leading to COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye and help countries align climate, energy security and development goals.
