UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell says the latest update to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report shows the world is finally bending the emissions curve downward.
“Our update to our NDC Synthesis Report shows: The emissions curve is being bent downwards,” Stiell said in a letter to Parties ahead of COP30.
“Global emissions are projected to fall by 12 percent in 2035 (compared to 2019 levels) based on new NDCs.”
The UN report, released on 10 November 2025, compiles data from 113 countries that have submitted their 2035 NDCs.
The analysis projects total global greenhouse gas emissions including land use and forestry will be 12 percent below 2019 levels by 2035.
Before the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global emissions were projected to rise between 20 and 48 percent by 2035.
The current data marks a major turning point, though experts caution that deeper cuts are still needed to meet the 1.5°C target.
Stiell said the results show progress, but the pace of change remains too slow.
“Every fraction of a degree matters,” he said, urging countries to turn commitments into concrete action.
The updated findings come as world leaders gather in Belém for COP30, where accelerating finance, technology transfer, and implementation of national climate plans will dominate the agenda.
“History will not ask what we intended,” Stiell said earlier at the COP30 Leaders’ Summit. “It will ask what we achieved,” he said.
