The Pacific Islands are on the brink of an environmental and socioeconomic crisis as they confront the devastating impacts of accelerating sea level rise, ocean warming, and acidification.
These alarming findings are detailed in the latest “State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023” report, released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The report, released by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga highlights the grave threats that climate change poses to the very existence of these vulnerable island nations.
The report reveals that sea level rise in the South-West Pacific region is outpacing global averages, posing an existential threat to the low-lying islands.
Since 1993, sea levels in much of the western tropical Pacific have risen by 10-15 centimeters, nearly twice the global rate.
This alarming trend has led to a dramatic increase in coastal flooding events, with some islands experiencing floods dozens of times more frequently than in the past.
According to the Pacific Islands Climate Change Monitor 2021, Guam now faces flooding up to 22 times a year, compared to just two times in the past, Penrhyn, Cook Islands from five to 43 times a year; Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands from two to 20 times a year; Papeete, French Polynesia from five to 34 times a year; while Pago Pago, American Samoa has seen a staggering increase from zero to 102 floods annually.
The implications of these rising seas are profound. With the average elevation of many Pacific Islands just one to two meters above sea level, the majority of the population and critical infrastructure are perilously close to the encroaching ocean.
“Surging seas are coming for us all,” warned Secretary-General Guterres, emphasising that the global nature of the crisis extends far beyond the Pacific.
“Around a billion people live in coastal areas threatened by our swelling ocean.”
The report highlights the rapid warming of sea surface temperatures in the region, which have risen three times faster than the global average since 1980.
This has led to a doubling in the frequency of marine heatwaves, which have become more intense and prolonged.
The 2023 marine heatwave around New Zealand, categorised as extreme, lasted for approximately six months, causing destruction on marine ecosystems.
Marine heatwaves have far-reaching consequences, from the mass bleaching of coral reefs across the South Pacific, including Fiji, Vanuatu, and Kiribati, to the disruption of fish stocks and the marine food chain, according to the U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Watch.
The warming of the upper ocean, particularly in the Solomon Sea, Arafura, Banda, and Timor Seas, has been particularly strong, with rates exceeding two to three times the global average. This trend, exacerbated by natural climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña, is expected to continue, posing severe risks to marine biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions who depend on the ocean.
In addition to rising temperatures, the WMO report also warns of the increasing acidification of the ocean, driven by the absorption of carbon dioxide emissions.
Since 1988, ocean acidity has increased by over 12 percent, with significant declines in surface ocean chlorophyll and phytoplankton size detected across the Pacific Islands region. This decline threatens the foundation of the marine food chain, with potentially catastrophic consequences for both marine life and human communities.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo revealed the irreversible nature of these changes, stating, “The ocean has taken up more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and is undergoing changes which will be irreversible for centuries to come. Human activities have weakened the capacity of the ocean to sustain and protect us and through sea level rise are transforming a lifelong friend into a growing threat.”
Both UN Chief and WMO Secretary-General called for urgent and drastic action to address the climate crisis.
Guterres reiterated the need for significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and increased investment in climate adaptation measures.
“Even though some sea level rise is inevitable, its scale, pace, and impact are not. That depends on our decisions,” he said.
One critical measure highlighted by Secretary-General Saulo is the expansion of early warning systems, which can facilitate proactive measures such as evacuation plans and infrastructure reinforcement.
However, such systems are currently available in only one-third of Small Island Developing States globally, leaving many communities vulnerable to the devastating impacts of climate change.
The “State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023” report was prepared in cooperation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and other United Nations agencies and international partners.
