The Pacific Islands Forum’s failure to agree on a joint response to China’s recent missile test reflects the difficult balancing act facing regional governments, according to Professor Steven Ratuva from the University of Canterbury.
He says governments across the region are trying to maintain relationships with all the major powers without becoming caught in their rivalry.
Speaking on Pacific Mornings, Ratuva said the Forum’s silence should be viewed in the wider context of growing competition between China, Australia and the United States.
He said most Pacific countries have close ties with Beijing while also relying on long-standing partners such as Australia and New Zealand.
“It’s quite a complex issue here, particularly given the broader context of geopolitical contestation, China on one hand, Australia, and the U.S.”
He said China has become a major development partner across the Pacific through aid, infrastructure projects and its role as a Pacific Islands Forum dialogue partner.
“So I think that the countries are quite cautious about what to do, and where to go.”
Rather than choosing one side, Ratuva said Pacific governments have learned to work with competing powers at the same time.
“So the Pacific Island states, after years and years of being sandwiched between the big powers, they have come to learn the art of engaging with both sides, just to make sure they get the benefits from both sides.
“It makes a lot of sense, economically and politically, they can get aid from Australia, aid from China.”
He said governments are careful not to become trapped in geopolitical rivalries.
“So it’s a matter of being able to be in the middle and playing both sides.”
China’s launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile over the Pacific earlier this month has drawn condemnation from several Pacific governments, but the Forum has yet to issue a collective statement because decisions require consensus.
Ratuva criticised Beijing’s actions, saying they ran against the region’s vision of the Pacific as an “Ocean of Peace”.
“China’s behaviour has been quite abrupt in doing that,” he told PMN. “In fact, no good neighbour should be doing that. Using what I call the diplomacy of threat.”
But he said China was not alone in using pressure to advance its interests.
“But then, in the bigger context, China is not the only one using the diplomacy of threat or threat diplomacy.
“The United States has been doing it… all the big powers do that sort of thing.”
Looking ahead to next week’s Pacific Islands Forum Foreign Ministers Meeting in Suva, Ratuva expects members to remain divided over how strongly to respond.
“Australia will be trying to push for a strong statement against China.”
Ratuva believes many Pacific governments will take a more cautious approach because of their economic ties with Beijing and concerns about their own vulnerability in an increasingly tense strategic environment.
“I think there’s going to be a mixture of approaches there… small states are probably trying to be cautious, while Australia and New Zealand will be trying to push for a harsher, stronger statement.”
While Ratuva says the region is trying to balance relationships with competing powers, Pacific Islands Forum Chair Matthew Wale has urged leaders not to lose sight of Pacific ownership.
In a keynote address at the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat in Suva this month, Wale said: “Our partners should help us realise and complement our ambitions – not define nor shape them for us.”
The Solomon Islands Prime Minister also reminded leaders that “the future of our region will not be determined by the interests of others.
“It will be determined by the choices we make together as one Blue Pacific family,” Wale said.
Forum Secretary-General Baron Waqa has also urged members to protect peace and trust across the region while advancing the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.
The challenge comes as Pacific leaders continue to emphasise regional unity through the Pacific Islands Forum.
Those ambitions are likely to be tested again when Forum foreign ministers meet in Suva next week, with China’s missile test expected to be one of the key issues on the agenda.
The issue is also expected to feature when Pacific leaders meet in Koror, Palau, for the 2026 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting from 30 August to 04 September where regional security and the Forum’s vision of an “Ocean of Peace” are likely to remain high on the agenda.
The summit theme is ‘B.E.L.A.U – Building Economies: Life. Action. Unity.’
