Prospect of Trump victory touches Pacific climate nerve
WASHINGTON, 06 NOVEMBER 2024 (AAP) — A Donald Trump victory in the U.S election would shake but not skittle global efforts on climate change, experts believe.
Like many across the world, Pacific nations and territories eagerly anticipate the election results for their implications across the globe.
Some are even participating, with three American territories voting on Tuesday – Guam, Palau and Northern Mariana Islands.
Yet the election represents a fork in the road on climate change for the entire region.
While Democratic nominee Kamala Harris represents a continuation of current policy, her Republican rival Donald Trump has threatened to pull the U.S out of the Paris Agreement – as he did during his first term – and remove environmental protections to boost oil and gas production.
Pacific island nations were right to be troubled by the prospect of a Republican back in the White House, Massey University Associate Professor Anna Powles said.
“Trump’s attitude on climate, on the environment, are deeply concerning so it wouldn’t be of benefit to the Pacific in any way,” she told Radio NZ.
The election comes a week before the COP29 annual global climate change talks in Azerbaijan.
Trump’s first win came just before the 2016 COP gathering in Morocco, says Wesley Morgan, a Climate Council fellow and research associate at the University of NSW’s Institute for Climate Risk and Response.
“There was shock among diplomats,” he told AAP.
While Trump’s agenda was not climate-friendly, Morgan said it did not produce a collapse of the global order as “no-one followed suit”.
“Others remembered it took a generation of really hard multilateral talks to get there, so in a way Trump reinforced the Paris Agreement,” he said.
“Other nations doubled down on the climate rules that have been established … the Europeans, Japan, kept going and we may see that again.”
He also said momentum in clean energy was unstoppable, irrespective of American plans to boost fossil fuel-powered supply.
“The global energy transition is well under way and accelerating … the direction of travel is clear, and a Trump presidency won’t change that global megatrend,” he said.
“Australians love clean energy. One in three households now have solar on their rooftops – we’re world leaders in that regard.
“The days of coal-fired power are done. No matter who is in the White House, or in Canberra, we’re not going back.”
It was in Australia’s interest to see the climate infrastructure maintained, Morgan said.
“We’re a middle power, we can’t throw our weight around, we have a strong interest in a global rules-based order, and we have a strong national interest in reinforcing the Paris Agreement consensus,” he said.
Alongside the vitally important presidential election, Americans are also voting on a spate of “down-ballot” elections, including for senators, congressional representatives, governors, attorneys-general and more.
In Guam, that includes the entire legislature and even one supreme court justice, while in Palau, that includes a presidential contest between incumbent Surangel Whipps Jr and two-time former president Thomas Remengesau Jr.
The pair are brothers-in-law, with around 10,000 ballots cast in an election dominated by cost-of-living concerns, according to local media.
