A new policy paper published by the Pacific Security College proposes evolving the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration into a legally binding regional peace and security treaty, arguing that it could provide greater predictability amid increasing geostrategic competition.
The paper, The Ocean of Peace: Vision to Treaty, examines the benefits and risks of transforming the Ocean of Peace Declaration, endorsed by Pacific leaders in 2025, into a binding agreement. It proposes negotiating a new regional peace and security treaty as a protocol to the Treaty of Rarotonga.
Author Ben Burdon said the Pacific’s strategic vision is clearly outlined in the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration and that embedding its values and norms into international law and practice could be a potential next step.
“Negotiating a new treaty as a protocol to Rarotonga would turn a respected nuclear-free zone into a legally binding regional peace and security system – one built and owned by the Pacific,” Burdon said.
The proposed protocol, referred to in the paper as “Rarotonga II,” includes principles such as establishing the Pacific as a Zone of Peace, recognizing climate security as a peace obligation, and creating a mechanism for external partners to formally commit to Pacific peace and security law and practice.
According to Burdon, the protocol would introduce prior consultation, transparency and collective discussion, helping reduce surprise and mistrust between Pacific countries and external powers while strengthening regionalism.
The paper notes that China is expected to acquire the capability to retake Taiwan militarily in 2027, while emphasising that capacity does not equate intent. It says the Pacific’s strategic geography would be critical for military access and denial in such a scenario.
“While a regional peace and security treaty is not without risk, the strategic guardrails set out in such an agreement could help the Pacific manage the difficult geopolitical environment ahead,” Burdon said.
Pacific Security College Director Professor Dave Peebles said the paper was published at a time of growing uncertainty across the region.
“The Pacific’s capacity to come together in pursuit of common goals remains one of its greatest strengths – and one that carries particular weight in an increasingly contested strategic environment,” Peebles said.
He said the proposal would likely generate both support and criticism, adding that the College’s policy papers are intended to encourage reflection, debate and diverse perspectives on regional issues.
The paper includes contributions from four regional experts: Tuiloma Neroni Slade, Dr Sandra Tarte, Dr Anna Naupa and Sione Tekiteki.
Tuiloma, a former Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum, said Burdon’s assessment of the sensitivities surrounding a new protocol to the Treaty of Rarotonga was realistic and perceptive. He agreed broadly with the paper’s assessment of potential benefits and risks, including the possibility of destabilising existing security relationships, fragmenting Pacific unity and provoking geopolitical backlash.
Tuiloma suggested that strengthening the implementation of the existing Treaty of Rarotonga could be more practical than reopening it.
“The Pacific is strongest when it acts collectively. Whatever form the next steps for the Ocean of Peace may take, they will need to be guided by unity and deepened regionalism,” he said.
Dr Tarte of the University of the South Pacific said the paper outlines a clear pathway for codifying key principles of the Ocean of Peace while reinforcing the Treaty of Rarotonga’s role in the region’s security architecture.
“It significantly advances thinking around how to manage inter-state tensions and external engagement, thereby promoting greater transparency in security matters and reaffirming the rules-based order,” Tarte said.
She said the Ocean of Peace Declaration has provided a pivotal platform for advancing Pacific priorities globally and described the proposal as an exploration of how to “turn vision into law.”
Dr Naupa of the Pacific Security College welcomed Burdon’s use of the 40-year-old Treaty of Rarotonga as a foundation and his consideration of contemporary Pacific deterrence options.
She stressed the importance of inclusive consultation and grassroots-driven processes in future regional peace and security discussions.
“State-led security strategies must be Pacific peoples-centred and address historical legacies,” Naupa said.
She added that any regional deterrence model would need to consider how long-standing elements of Pacific regional policy could be integrated into the preventative diplomacy model proposed in the paper.
Tekiteki of the Auckland University of Technology Law School said an Ocean of Peace protocol would seek to institutionalize and protect Pacific agency.
“The idea of an Ocean of Peace treaty framed as a protocol to the Treaty of Rarotonga is compelling, particularly in its attempt to move the Pacific beyond the largely normative framing of the Blue Pacific Continent towards something more concrete and grounded in legal order,” he said.
He said deeper regional security coordination could strengthen solidarity and help position the region collectively in response to intensifying geopolitical competition.
The Pacific Security College said its policy paper series is intended to contribute a diversity of ideas and perspectives to regional discussions about the journey to 2050.
