A senior official at the Green Climate Fund (GCF) has warned that Solomon Islands must take proactive and decisive political action to prepare for a looming 2026–2027 super El Niño, saying the country faces a more severe threat than the devastating 1997–1998 event.
In a personal statement posted on LinkedIn, Exsley Taloiburi, Head of Multilateral Governance and Observer Engagement at the Green Climate Fund, said the approaching El Niño is expected to unfold under hotter global conditions, reduced development assistance and a population that has roughly doubled since the late 1990s.
Taloiburi said Solomon Islands faces a 2026–2027 “super El Niño,” comparable to the very strong 1997–1998 event but taking place in a more challenging environment marked by climate change, geopolitical constraints and increased pressure on resources and public services.
The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service has declared El Niño conditions and expects impacts to continue through at least the end of the year, intensifying in late 2026 and lasting until April or May 2027.
Taloiburi noted that climate change is acting as a force multiplier. During the 1997–1998 El Niño, global warming was about 0.42 degrees Celsius, but global temperatures have now surpassed the 1.5-degree threshold advocated by Pacific Island countries.
He also warned that traditional development partners are reducing official development assistance and climate and disaster financing, while the country’s population growth has increased demand for water, food, health services and other resources.
Taloiburi estimated that the 1997 El Niño cost Solomon Islands between one and two percent of gross domestic product, equivalent to about SBD300 million.
He warned that the current event could result in declines of more than 30 percent in agriculture and primary exports and reductions of more than 40 percent in freshwater availability in Honiara and other centres.
Taloiburi highlighted worsening water shortages in provincial centres, including Malu’u and Gizo, noting that severe shortages at Malu’u Station are already affecting healthcare services.
He argued that reactive responses would not be enough.
“The business-as-usual, reactive responses are insufficient; proactive, politically backed planning is urgent to mitigate health, economic, water, and food security risks.”
Taloiburi said investments in preparedness generate significant returns and can deliver what he described as a “triple dividend” by reducing disaster losses, creating everyday economic and social benefits, and encouraging innovation and growth.
He argued that resilience should be viewed as a development strategy rather than simply a way to manage risk.
Taloiburi called for high-level political leadership, including the possible establishment of an ad hoc political taskforce mandated by the Prime Minister to work alongside the National Disaster Council and provide rapid recommendations to Cabinet.
He also urged a shift from reactive spending to ex-ante financing, including contingency funding to support water security, drought-resilient agriculture, sanitation and hygiene programmes, and the pre-positioning of critical supplies.
Among the recommendations was the creation of a national climate and disaster fund capable of rapidly supporting vulnerable communities.
Taloiburi suggested drawing lessons from financing models used in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Palau, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and Barbados.
He also proposed government-backed concessional loans through the National Development Bank of Solomon Islands and subsidised drought insurance products to help households and farmers respond to climate shocks.
“The 2026 super El Niño demands proactive, decisive political action that updates 1997-era lessons for a hotter climate, tighter aid environment, and larger population,” he said.
Taloiburi said focusing on advance financing, water and agriculture measures, a national resilience fund and insurance tools could significantly reduce losses.
“Embracing the triple dividend mindset reframes resilience as smart development—delivering immediate co-benefits, strengthening the economy, and safeguarding communities when shocks arrive,” Taloiburi said.
