By Lopeti Senituli
The second Vote of No Confidence (VONC) in Prime Minister Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni and his Cabinet was tabled when Parliament reconvened on 25 November 2024.
The Speaker, Lord Fakafanua, instructed the parliamentary committee responsible for such matters to scrutinise it to see if it complied with parliamentary rules and whether it needed additional information before it be made available to the PM and Cabinet by Friday 29 November who, in turn, had to submit their responses by Tuesday 03 December for debate and ballot. On Thursday 28 December the Speaker saw fit to accede to the Prime Minister’s request for more time to prepare his response, by rescheduling the date for debate and ballot to 09 December. The movers of the VONC were not happy.
The substance of this VONC has not been made public but the first one submitted in August 2023 had 46 grounds and the PM and Cabinet responded in detail within the five days they were granted and did not ask for an extension. Anonymous sources suggest that there are only seven grounds this time round and there is suspicion that there is more to the request for extension than meets the eye. For example, the inaugural graduation ceremony for Tonga National University, which opened its gates in January 2023, was held over 3 days, beginning 04 December, with the University’s Chancellor, King Tupou VI officiating, and the PM, as Pro-Chancellor and Chair of the University Council and Minister for Education and Training, was on hand to facilitate the first day’s ceremony. 04 December had been clearly earmarked for the first day of the graduation ceremony as it was on that day in 1845 that King Siaosi Tupou I, the founder of modern Tonga, was crowned King of Tonga and the University’s motto is, “Truth, Justice, Freedom”. Intriguingly, King Tupou VI was absent on the second day of the graduation ceremony and Lord Fakafanua played the Chancellor’s role. The King was also absent on the third day, and this time the PM, stepped forward and played the Chancellor’s role! The visual images of the physical demeanour and facial features of students graduating on day two and three were clearly not as enthusiastic or as happy as those that graduated on day one!
Now we will wait to see the physical demeanour and facial features of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, come 09 December. In his media conference on 25 November, the PM defended the VONC movers’ constitutional right to introduce it, although he also said that since he only had a year left on his 4-year term, he would have preferred a dialogue on their concerns. The overall impression he gave to the media is that he had the numbers to again defeat this second VONC.
The Prime Minister’s Cabinet had 9 members as of 10 November 24. There were 10 members at the beginning of November 24, but his Minister for Lands and Survey, Lord Tu’i’afitu, handed in his resignation allegedly after receiving a letter from the Palace Office saying that King Tupou 6 withdrew his confidence and trust is him as Minster, and rather than await a Cabinet meeting and the PM’s return from COP29, he immediately threw in the towel. Of the 9 members, 4 are People’s Reps (PRs) in Parliament including the Prime Minister, 2 are Nobles’ Reps (NRs) and 3 are Non-Elected Rep (NERs) that were appointed by the PM under his constitutional privilege. The 3 x NERs cannot cast a vote on the VONC. So, with 6 votes in hand, the Prime Minister needs 8 more votes to beat the VONC. There are 5 x PRs that normally side with him in Parliament. They are Tevita Puloka (Tongatapu 1), Dulcie Tei (Tongatapu 6) Sione Taione (Tongatapu , Veivosa Taka (Ha’apai 13), Mo’ale ‘Otunuku (Vava’u 14). Then there are possible 3 x NRs that could side with him. They are two NRs from Ha’apai, Lord Tuiha’angana, and Lord Fakafanua and Prince Kalaniuvalu (NR from the outer islands of Niua). But there is a question mark over Prince Kalaniavalu’s allegiance as he had voted in favour of the first VONC in September 2023, but did not sign this second VONC when it was tabled.
The movers of the second VONC are also confident they have the numbers this time round. A significant gain for them is the fact that Lord Tu’ilakepa, who had voted against the VONC in 2023, is one of the 3 x NRs (out of 10 signatories) this time round. It is also significant that hitherto, Lord Tu’ileakepa had almost always voted with the Prime Minister and was loathe to be seen or be associated with members of parliament that had any pro-democracy inclinations. The 7 x PRs that signed were Dr Langi Fasi (Tongatapu 20, Mateni Tapueleuelu (Tongatapu 4) Dr, ‘Aisake Eke (Tongatapu 5), Piveni Piukala (Tongatapu 7), Kapeli Lanumata (Tongatapu 10), Mo’ale Finau (Haapai 12), and Vatau Hui (Niuas 17). On top of that one of the VONC supporters was not in town when the VONC was tabled. Dr, Tanieta Fusmalohi (Eua 11), was still making his way back from COP 29. So, they have 11 guaranteed votes. If the recently resigned Minister, Lord Tu’I’afitu, and Prince Kalaniuvalu, sides with them, they have 13. And if they can entice a NR or PR with a promise of a Ministerial portfolio in the new Cabinet that must be elected if the VONC is successful, they are home and dry. People are mum on who the replacement PM will be, but Dr Aisake Eke’s name (Tongatapu 5 PR) has been bandied around and is favoured by the NRs.
The NRs will play a crucial role in this ballot, as they had in the last VONC, and the creation of all Cabinets since the reform of 2010 – except of course for those the late Prime Minister Samuela Akilisi Pohiva in 2014 and 2018. Their control of 9 the 26 seats (over 33 percent of the size of parliament) is clearly disproportionate to the constituency they represent, which is less than 1 percent of the country’s population. But it is what it is. For now.
Tonga is still in unchartered waters. Since King Tupou VI withdrew his confidence and trust in PM Huakavameiliku, as Minister for Defence and Fekita ‘Utoikamanu as Minster for Foreign Affairs early 2024, PM Hu’akavameiliku continues as Acting Minister in those two portfolios. There was hope that substantive Ministers would have been appointed (from the Royal Family) by the time of the Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting in Nuku’alofa in 24 August, but it was not to be. In spite of the hulouifi performed by the PM in February, relations between the King and PM is still turbulent and one cannot help but think that the Palace Office is at least supportive of the VONC even if it is not amongst the instigators.
Prime Minister Hu;akavameiliku is Chair of PIF until next year’s leaders’ summit in Solomon Islands, and there have been suggestions that he feels let down by King Tupou VI for not being in country to receive the PIF leaders given that his father King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV and his brother, Prime Minster, Prince Tuipelehake ,were instrumental in setting up PIF (as SPEC) in 1972. Together with Fiji’s Ratu Kamisese Mara. Cook Islands’ Sir Albert Henry, Nauru’s Hammer De Roburt, Samoa’s Malietoa and Niue’s Robert Rex, walked out of SPC when they could no longer stand being treated like children by the colonial powers (U.S, France, UK, the Netherlands, Australia, and NZ) at the annual SPC meetings and their absolute refusal to include “decolonisation” and “nuclear testing” on SPC’s agenda. (They invited NZ and Australia to join them as they had no paisa and the inaugural meeting was hosted by NZ PM Sir Keith Holyoake in Rotorua. But that’s another story!
For us here in Tonga, it is still anybody’s game and it is guaranteed that some of our political leaders were in church on Sunday praying for the second coming before Christmas Day 2024 and their physical demeanour and facial features after 09 December, will tell us whose prayers were answered!.
