PINA

Three steps could turn the hosting compromise with Türkiye into real gains for the region and the world.

By Melanie Pill Georgia Hammersley Alexandre Dayant

Last month, the Pacific Islands Forum announced that Fiji will host this year’s pre-COP, the ministerial gathering ahead of the annual United Nations climate summit (COP31). Alongside the October talks in Suva, Tuvalu will convene a leaders’ segment to foreground what climate impacts already mean for small, shock-exposed nations on the frontline.

The Pacific pre-COP emerged from an unusual compromise between Australia and Türkiye over hosting rights for this year’s negotiations. Canberra had campaigned for years to stage the summit alongside Pacific partners, seeking to elevate the region’s climate concerns on the global stage at a moment when the world is running out of time to curb emissions.

When consensus on the host proved unattainable, Australia eventually made way for Türkiye to convene the summit and lead the Action Agenda, the arm of COP outside formal negotiations that centres on voluntary pledges and initiatives from governments, businesses and civil society. Many of the summit’s practical outcomes now take shape there. In return, Australia will assume the newly created role of “President of Negotiations”, with authority to steer consultations and shape draft texts. The Pacific, while not hosting the main summit, secured the right to host the pre-COP.

Many viewed the outcome as a diplomatic setback that would weaken the region’s influence over the summit. But that need not be the case. As we argue in a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, COP31 can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the region if the Australian government uses the moment strategically. Three policy steps stand out.

First, use the Pacific pre-COP to generate political momentum early. Pre-COP meetings are usually technical exercises where delegates test draft text and align positions. But this one will take place in a region confronting rising seas, eroding coastlines and intensifying storms. Meeting in Suva and Funafuti will allow delegates to see these pressures first-hand, injecting a sense of urgency before the main negotiations.

Building a coalition behind a shared agenda will strengthen negotiating power when consequential talks begin in Antalya.

But the setting alone will not drive ambition and guarantee attendance. The agenda must therefore be framed around the shared interests of climate-vulnerable developing countries, not only the Pacific.

Adaptation finance at scale, reforms that make climate finance faster and easier to access, and stronger fossil fuel commitments are all issues that resonate far beyond the region. Ocean governance beyond conservation remains largely absent from COP discussions, despite becoming a growing concern for many developing countries as rising seas test maritime boundaries and even continuity of statehood. Here, Pacific states and Australia are well placed to lead a discussion. Initiatives such as the Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty – a world-first agreement recognising continuity of statehood alongside pathways for climate migration – offer a starting point.

Building a coalition behind a shared agenda will strengthen negotiating power when consequential talks begin in Antalya.

Ensuring the pre-COP attracts serious engagement will also require visible political leadership. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should take a prominent role and extend targeted invitations to selected countries so the gathering becomes one that leaders cannot afford to miss.

Second, use Australia’s authority as President of Negotiations with intent. In this role, represented by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Canberra will oversee consultations and guide draft texts at moments when ambition is most vulnerable to dilution. Close coordination with Türkiye on the Action Agenda will help ensure priorities appear in headline initiatives, not just negotiating rooms.

Holding the line on fossil fuels will be important. Australia should push to reinforce the COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, engaging constructively with countries that continue to block progress. Where consensus proves difficult, ambition will need to be balanced with pragmatism. Encouraging credible voluntary commitments to initiatives such as the Belém Declaration could help protect gains and prevent backsliding.

Third, back diplomacy with delivery. Australia’s bid to host COP31 signalled a willingness to mobilise substantial financial resources. Rather than letting this ambition dissipate with the hosting compromise, part of it should be redirected towards tangible climate action. That includes properly resourcing a high-impact pre-COP in the Pacific and ensuring Pacific diplomats have the means to represent their interests effectively in Türkiye.

Redirected funding could also scale up climate-resilient infrastructure through the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific or support Pacific-led initiatives such as the Pacific Resilience Facility. Looking beyond the region, Australia should bolster its global climate credentials with greater support for multilateral funds, such as the Green Climate Fund. Canberra’s current pledge – just AU$50 million over four years – is modest for a fund that is now delivering strong results in the Pacific.

The hosting deal might have shifted the balance of influence, but the region still retains meaningful levers: a pre-COP in the region to set expectations early, stewardship of the negotiating text, and the ability to redirect resources into delivery.

That leverage matters in a fraught global context. Climate diplomacy today unfolds against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, fiscal pressures and competing global crises. In these conditions, progress will not happen by default. Strong leadership from Australia and the Pacific will be needed to ensure COP31 is remembered not as a missed opportunity, but as a moment that helped sustain global climate ambition.

Ultimately, COP31 will not be judged by where it is held, but by what it delivers.

On the margins of the 70th Session of the Commission on the Status of Women (CSW70), Pacific Islands Forum Ministers and Senior Officials held a high‑level dialogue with the Secretary‑General of the United Nations, António Guterres, to advance Pacific priorities on gender equality and social inclusion in line with Forum Leaders’ vision under the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.

The dialogue was an important opportunity for Pacific Ministers and senior officials responsible for women’s affairs and gender equality to engage directly with the United Nations Secretary‑General on key regional priorities including Peace and Security, UN80, Pacific Pre-COP31 and Gender-Based Violence (GBV).

Through open and constructive Talanoa, Ministers highlighted Pacific-led and centred solutions and called for sustained global partnership and support to address the interconnected impacts of climate change, economic vulnerability, and social inequality on women and girls across the region, consistent with the 2050 Strategy’s emphasis on resilience, inclusion and collective action.

As chair of the meeting, Cathy Nori, Solomon Islands Minister for Women, Youth, Children and Family Affairs, expressed the Forum’s support for the UN80 initiative, while underscoring the importance of ensuring that reforms take into consideration the needs of small island developing states.

“A more efficient and streamlined UN is necessary, but this must not compromise the UN’s reach, effectiveness or presence in the Pacific. We must ensure that programs and activities focused on the most vulnerable, particularly those countries in special situations – such as Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), are prioritised and preserved.”

Fane Fotu Fituafe, Tonga’s Minister of Internal Affairs, emphasised the importance of ensuring Pacific women’s experiences and leadership are meaningfully reflected across the United Nations system.

“As you advance the peace operations review and the UN80 reform agenda, we urge for our Pacific’s experience and women’s leadership, to be meaningfully reflected, reiterating the need for our women’s representation in UN decision-making on peace and security be consistent with Forum Leaders’ call for Pacific representation across the UN system.”

Ruth Kwansing, Kiribati’s Minister of Youth, Sports and Social Affairs, highlighted key challenges to addressing Gender-based violence and access to justice in the Pacific.

“We request that UN’s support is tailored and best fit the Pacific’s vulnerabilities and structural barriers, including geographical isolation and cultural and linguistic diversity.”

She further emphasised the need for a coordinated approach by UN Agencies operating in the Pacific to strengthen efforts to prevent and respond to gender‑based violence.

“Underscore the need for UN agencies in the region to strengthen their own coordination and collaboration in order to support ending GBV and prevention initiatives and improved survivor services.”

The Pacific Ministers and their delegations reaffirmed their commitment to advancing gender equality and social inclusion as a core pillar of the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent and look forward to the continued leadership and engagement of the United Nations Secretary-General in championing gender equality and amplifying Pacific priorities on the global stage.