Australia could co-host the global climate meeting in 2026 well on the way to emissions targets, and ready to drive fresh momentum.
Opinion Kerry Schott and John Connor
Australia wishes to co-host the global COP31 UN climate talks in partnership with the Pacific in 2026. This Conference of the Parties is the 31st annual formal meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – a conference where parties come together to develop common rules and explain their progress, or not, in lowering emissions against agreed targets.
This COP is important for Australia and its Pacific neighbours in many important ways. The fact that COP31 is proposed as a regional initiative – in the form of a partnership arrangement – that could involve a pre-COP meeting in the Pacific is a great advantage.
The contribution of the Pacific to climate action has been significant. The Pacific islands, along with other small island nations, played a key role in ensuring the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees was included in the Paris Agreement.
Although the partnership model proposed for COP31 is unprecedented, it is appropriate, given that winning the fight against climate change requires the strengthening of existing partnerships at all levels and the creation of new ones.
And it provides a crucial opportunity to amplify Pacific voices that have already done so much and fought so hard to make the world heed the dangers of climate change and respond with the required urgency and determination.
Almost all the world’s governments will gather in Australia. This brings about $200 million (US$138 million) in benefits to the host city but, more importantly, co-hosting the COP will provide a powerful impetus for stronger domestic and regional investment in climate solutions.
In 2026 Australia will be well placed to host COP31. By then we should have locked in a strong 2035 target for emissions reduction, and a national net zero plan supported by sector-specific plans.
The Climate Change Authority’s recent Sector Pathways report shows this is possible with existing technologies and stresses the importance of taking action earlier. Later and new technology will be important, but the fact remains that a tonne of greenhouse gas that is not emitted now is better than a tonne not emitted later. The build-up and stock of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere can diminish earlier.
By 2026 significant progress will be made towards the 82 percent renewables target. Despite our penchant for doom and gloom, the National Electricity Market is running at around 50 per cent renewables, and the pipeline of new renewables is growing rapidly. If we do not make the 82 per cent renewables target by 2030, as expected, we will certainly be very close.
The heavy-emitting facilities captured under the Safeguard Mechanism are also subject to compounding compliance responsibilities under that scheme.
And by 2026, Australia’s carbon credit scheme – already very robust – will have undergone further improvements. This will ensure it is fit for purpose to play the crucial role in carbon abatement and nature restoration that organisations such as the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists envisage for it.
Hosting a climate conference is just part of a package that comes with assuming leadership of climate negotiations. Being COP president for a 12-month period is an influential role, and one that has recently been extended.
A little-noticed outcome of last year’s COP28 in Dubai was the establishment of a formal troika of COP presidents – comprising the presidencies of the previous year’s COP, the current year and the following year.
That means Australia and its Pacific neighbours would have an opportunity and responsibility to help guide and strengthen the world’s response to climate change for almost a third of this critical decade.
Climate COPs are also uniquely important, compared to other global diplomatic gatherings, because of their focus on raising and apportioning massive amounts of finance. This provides an opportunity for further engagement with our financial sector.
More than US$9 trillion ($13 trillion) a year is likely to be required by 2030 to fight climate change globally, which is more than four times the annual GDP of Australia.
As COP co-host, Australia would be positioned to play an important role in ensuring pledged funds are raised, sufficient private sector investment is brought into play, and funds are allocated and spent in a responsible manner. This is reinforced by Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s recent appointment to co-chair finance goal talks at the centre of this year’s COP.
Some suggest that Australia’s record as a significant emitter, and a major exporter of fossil fuels, should render it ineligible to co-host COP31.
But countries that have previously held the COP presidency do not have an unblemished climate record – with the sole exception of Fiji, a country that held the 2017 presidency.
In UN climate talks, there is pretty much no such thing as a perfect host. But in the “show-and-tell” that occurs at COP, any hypocrisy will get global exposure.
Hosting COP31 would bring an unprecedented number of leaders from governments, business and the global community to Australian shores. It’s a vital opportunity to focus on the need to accelerate policy and investment from the public and private sectors.
After having already suffered some of the early, terrible consequences of climate change, Australia is offering to step up and show global leadership – leadership it will have to demonstrate for years, not just for two or three weeks.
It is an opportunity we must seize and make the most of, if we are to play our part in building a better future and restoring a safe climate.
