The Pacific region is entering a period of heightened and overlapping security risks, with climate change, geopolitical competition and transnational threats converging to test regional stability, according to the Pacific Security Outlook Report 2026.
The report warns that the region is confronting a “polycrisis” that is stretching national systems and regional cooperation mechanisms. It’s a comprehensive assessment of the evolving security landscape facing our Blue Pacific Continent.
“The convergence of these challenges is testing our collective resolve and capacity to uphold the commitments made under the Boe Declaration and to advance the vision of the 2050 Strategy for a Blue Pacific Continent,” Forum Secretary General Baron Waqa said in the report.
The report makes it clear that climate change continues to dominate the region’s security outlook.
“The Pacific continues to experience the worsening impacts of climate change, now widely recognised as the single greatest threat to our security, wellbeing, and prosperity,” he said.
Rising sea levels, stronger weather events and pressure on food and water systems are expected to drive insecurity across communities.
“Our communities face rising sea levels, intensifying weather events, and threats to food and water security, all of which demand enhanced regional coordination and resilience,” he said.
At the same time, climate finance gaps remain a major concern, with global funding commitments unlikely to meet Pacific needs in the short term.
“Global and regional flashpoints and shifting geopolitical dynamics are shaping the strategic environment in complex ways, placing additional strain on the multilateral systems that have long underpinned our collective peace and security,” said Waqa.
The report highlights intensifying competition between major powers, particularly the United States and China, as a growing factor shaping Pacific security.
“Dynamic geopolitical competition will sharpen over the next 12 to 24 months with implications for Pacific foreign policy and the effectiveness of the multilateral system.”
This includes an increase in security and defence agreements and the emergence of parallel regional response mechanisms, which could complicate coordination.
Global conflicts — including Ukraine, the Middle East and tensions in the Taiwan Strait — are also placing pressure on the international system and influencing Pacific positions.
The report warns that transnational organised crime, cyberattacks and drug trafficking are expanding across the region.
Drug trafficking, human trafficking and illicit trade remain major risks, with organised crime groups becoming more active and sophisticated.
At the same time, cyber threats are increasing, targeting governments, businesses and communities, while exploiting gaps in capacity and regulation.
Human security challenges are also growing, driven by climate impacts, health risks, education gaps and social pressures, including rising drug use and misinformation.
Governance systems across the Pacific are under pressure from corruption, misinformation and foreign interference.
The report notes that trust in public institutions remains a concern, while democratic processes could face increased challenges in the lead-up to key elections across the region.
Economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026, with global uncertainty, trade pressures and climate shocks affecting Pacific economies.
Structural vulnerabilities — including reliance on imports and exposure to disasters — continue to limit resilience.
The report highlighted the Blue Pacific Ocean of Peace Declaration as a key framework to guide regional cooperation.
“It reaffirms our unwavering commitment to regional unity, peace, and cooperation, and calls upon all actors, state and non-state alike, to respect our sovereignty, the rules-based international order, and the mechanisms we have established for peace and security.”
The report stresses that stronger coordination, climate action, and investment in security systems are critical.
“As we look ahead, our focus must remain on delivering tangible outcomes for Pacific people.”
The Outlook concludes that the region’s ability to respond collectively will determine its resilience in the face of growing and interconnected threats.
