By Aaliyah Rogan
Deep-sea mining could optimistically begin ramping up from late 2026 to early 2027, according to Ilya Epikhim, Principal at Arthur D. Little.
This news comes after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finalised a new rule under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) which modernises and streamlines the permitting process for US entities, as previously reported.
As a result of this new rule, The Metals Company (NASDAQ:TMC) may potentially be able to accelerate its plans to collect battery-grade metals from the deep seabed.
TMC has submitted a consolidated application, covering 65,000km2 for polymetallic nodule collection in the Pacific’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) – which hosts an estimated trillion dollars worth of critical metals, as reported by this news service.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, Epikhim says following U.S President Trump’s executive order in April, NOAA has been directed to expedite the licencing process, making a final decision by late 2026 a realistic possibility.
“That said, mining at true commercial scale is more likely in 2027-2028,” he notes.
“Current nodule lifting tests have only been conducted at relatively small volumes, and the full system still needs to be tested at scale. A ramp-up period will be unavoidable.
“Sustainability will hinge on system design, monitoring, and whether large-scale operations can demonstrate materially lower environmental and social impact compared to terrestrial mining.”
Epikhim adds that the revised framework allows for a combined exploration and mining licence, enabling engineering development, environmental assessment, and financing to proceed in parallel rather than sequentially.
“NOAA has effectively created a single on-ramp: one application that unlocks both exploration and recovery. This is what brings late 2026 into the realm of possibility,” he tells this news service.
Closing the gap
Deep-sea mining refers to the process of extracting mineral deposits from the ocean floor, typically at depths greater than 200m.
Nauru, a small island northeast of Australia, is focused on ensuring that future extractive activities are done responsibly.
Since becoming the first developing state to sponsor a polymetallic nodule exploration contract in the Reserved Area of the CCZ, Nauru and its sponsored entity, Nauru Ocean Resources Inc (NORI) have taken a leading role in shaping the deep-sea mining industry, as reported.
Polymetallic nodules offer the cleanest source of critical base metals.
Epikhim says if executed at scale, seabed mining could have a “positive impact” on the global energy transition.
“Many onshore resources are depleting, increasingly difficult to extract, or uneconomic. At the same time, concern is growing around future copper, nickel and cobalt availability given projected demand.”
Critical minerals, such as copper, is the top performing trend in Deloitte Global’s Tracking the Trends 2026 report, following it being in the spotlight of global national security discussions.
According to S&P Global, the pace of electrification is set to swell copper demand to 42 million tonnes by 2040, representing a 50 percent increase from current levels.
Global copper production is forecast to peak in 2030 at 33 million tonnes. The widening disconnect will result in a supply deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040 – which is 25% below the projected demand. The gap widens further when additional areas emerge, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres.
The total installed capacity for all data centres is forecast to be roughly 550 gigawatts by 2040 – more than five times what it was in 2022. Concurrently, global defence spending could double to US$6 trillion by 2040 amid increased international tensions.
Both of these vectors are expected to triple by 2040, as reported by S&P Global, representing a combined 4 million tonnes of additional demand.
Meeting this demand requires adding the equivalent of roughly 300 Hoover Dams, or more than 650 one-gigawatt nuclear reactors, each year between now and 2040.
Epikhim says that environmentally responsible seabed mining could help close the critical minerals supply gap.
“From an industry perspective, it would stimulate demand for advanced mining technologies, equipment manufacturing, autonomous operations, and next-generation processing and materials handling,” he says.
“This is particularly relevant for polymetallic nodules, as well as other deep-sea resources such as cobalt-rich crusts and seafloor massive sulphides.”
Cobalt-rich crusts are ferromanganese deposits found on seafloor seamounts at depths between 400-7,000m. These crusts form as metals precipitate from cold seawater onto the rock surfaces of underwater mountains – primarily composed of manganese and iron oxides, concentrating metals such as cobalt, nickel, and rare earths.
Seafloor massive sulphides are metal-rich mineral deposits formed by hydrotherm vents on the ocean floor primarily at mid-ocean ridges and volcanic arcs. These copper, zinc, gold, and silver-rich deposits are created when magma-heated seawater leaches metals and precipitates them.
An underwater intersection
Due to the developments surrounding deep-sea mining, Epikhim believes that a split market is likely to emerge, where “clean-battery” brands avoid seabed minerals versus defence, strategic, and price-sensitive buyers prioritising security of supply.
A split market reflects two fundamentally different buyer logics. For instance, one side is brand-led buyers such as electric vehicle manufacturers and consumer electronics companies, while the other side is state-linked, defence, infrastructure, and price-sensitive buyers.
“In my view, the latter group will dominate in terms of volume and strategic influence,” Epikhim says.
“Moreover, traceability can be obscured through trading practices such as blending. If sea-bed derived nickel or cobalt is discounted, traders will have incentives to mix it into broader supply streams and resell it into so-called clean channels.”
According to Epikhim, seabed metals sit at the intersection of supply security, geopolitics, and reputational risk.
“For governments, they represent a strategic hedge against China-dominated supply chains. For companies, they offer optionality – but with significant environmental, social and governance (ESG) exposure,” he adds.
As previously reported, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) has developed tools and frameworks designed to support environmental decision-making around potential deep-sea mining activities.
The research consortium – CSIRO, Griffith University, Museums Victoria, the University of the Sunshine Coast, and Earth Sciences New Zealand – used an ecosystem-based management framework to assess environmental risks and develop management strategies that can adapt as new knowledge emerges.
Deep sea mining
Key outcomes of the eight reports include a definition of serious harm using a traffic light system, a full ecosystem model of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), a suite of environmental indicators, a risk-based management process, and a quantitative risk assessment.
CSIRO reports models and observations suggest that there is a disconnection between the bathypelagic (at depths between 1,000-3,000m) and epipelagic (upper ocean down to 200m) zone in the CCZ, meaning the transfer of impacts from deep-sea mining is constrained.
The research looked at functional groups at the species level, finding that some groups may be quick to recover if disturbed by mining, while others may be slow to recover, or not recover at all.
Despite the potential impacts of seabed mining, governments are beginning to support domestic processing capabilities, and seabed metals are becoming increasingly considered as part of a strategic resource basket.
For example, Nauru and the U.S, as well as China which holds the highest number of exploration contracts with the International Seabed Authority (ISA). Other countries include Norway and the UK which are pursuing commercial mining in their own waters and sponsoring exploration licences, respectively.
Epikhim says the revised NOAA rules consolidate what has been a previously fragmented, sequential process into a single licence-and-permit pathway with clearer timelines and fewer institutional hand-offs.
In contrast, Epikhim adds that the ISA has struggled to adopt the Mining Code due to internal divisions among member states.
The ISA Mining Code is a set of rules, regulations and procedures issued by the organisation to govern prospecting, exploration and potential exploitation of marine minerals in the international seabed area.
“Without expedited adoption of the Mining Code, the ISA risks an existential credibility challenge – particularly if commercial activity proceeds outside its framework,” Epikhim says.
“The implicit message is clear: finalise the code, or risk the world discovering it can mine without you,” says. Epikhim.
