By Dr Satyendra Prasad, Senior Fellow – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Climate Lead for Abt-Global
Pacific’s leaders, civil society, climate activists are making their arduous journey to Baku in Azerbaijan for the annual UN Climate Conference – COP29. All climate COP’s matter for the small states across the Pacific. This one perhaps like no other since the Paris Treaty was agreed to at COP21.
World leaders and the international climate community are meeting against a backdrop of growing frustration by island states of the Pacific about the slow and insufficient levels of climate finance flowing through. PNG’s Prime Minister, James Marape has gone even further and is choosing to stay away from COP altogether as a result of this growing frustration.
They are meeting as well against the backdrop of U.S election results and Trump 2.0 Administration assuming office in January 2025 – a few months after COP29 in Baku.
There are many things at play in COP 29 over which negotiators will need to wrestle with but by far the highest and most significant of this will be seeking agreement on a new framework for financing climate change.
Finance that matches needs
The means through which the developing countries – countries of the Global South are to implement the agreements and ambition arising from Paris is finance. Parties to the Convention now need to agree to the quantum of finance needed for this. As with things multilateral this is referred to cluinkingly as the the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQF). Different negotiating groups at the UN will come up with their own calculations backed by justifications for what this quantum should be.
So, what should the quantum be? We have an ad hoc framework today where US$100 billion is the agreed figure. Small states grouping estimate that the number is above US$1 trillion per annum. The Developing states as a group pitch this at a higher level and in excess of US$3 trillion. So, they trick and poor countries, large polluting states and zero polluting states, fossil fuel-based countries and renewable based countries will argue.
Finance that is reachable
But even if a new financing framework that is agreed, a key question for Pacific state leaders and their teams is how to ensure climate finance is reachable by communities, by Pacific organisation, by governments and by the Pacific’s private sector. Much of the early climate finance has been locked into titanium-framed bureaucratic procedures.
Finance that is additional
But often, new financial pledges made by rich countries are simply a repacking of existing existing resources. In some countries, this may mean a reduction of their overseen development assistance. This is both ingenious and deceitful. Developing countries and small states especially have a growing development needs. They are falling further behind in their SDG’s. The aid budgets that they have access to has been already too tight for a several decades. To take away money for health, education social services and repurpose it for been very tight for more than a decade.
Finance that works for small states
Pacific, Caribbean and Indian Ocean small leaders have their work cut out. Small states have unique disadvantages. They may have talented people across their civil service – but they need many many more to design new programs; take charge of developing financing arrangements; carry out high quality technical work on which adaption and other program rests. Often these works need to be funded through their own budgets. Scale of programmes hits them – many programmes are too small for consideration by large funding agencies. Their ability to manage programmes can be thin as staff capacity is stretched by multiple donor programmes each requiring their own reporting and monitoring.
The internal approves for financing may be easy for large countries such as India and Bangladesh but cumbersome and too slow for small states living climate crisis to crisis. It is absolutely vital that the Pacific small states are able to secure credible wins on climate finance. There should be more space for small programmes – below US$5 million. There should be fast approval processes soc small states – where they are for GCF or ADB and others. There should be sufficient grants financing for the Governments to build their programme capabilities.
Finance that is affordable
Given the scale of financing, a lot of action will be on how to bring private finance into the climate space. There is much happening already and even across the Pacific, we are beginning to see growing private sector investments and engagement for adaptation and mitigation. The scale of finance that the Pacific needs is many multiples of what they can have access to presently. Between now and 2030, they possibly need to be executing programmes in climate start agriculture, in climate proofing health and education infrastructure, rebuilding ports and airstrips and airports, enhancing water security. Across the small states this will mean investments close to US$5 billion mark.
Leadership and patience
In international agreements, there is a basic rule – nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to. Very little happens inside negotiating rooms. Much of the business happens months prior to the COP.
