If Australia succeeds in its bid to co-host global climate talks with Pacific nations in 2026, it could deliver a direct $100-$200 million (US$66 million- US$133 million) economic boost to the host city, according to a new analysis of the federal government’s plan.
But the federal government is still facing a competing bid from Türkiye for the right to host the COP31 United Nations climate change conference.
It has been nearly two years since Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen announced the joint Australia-Pacific bid to host the annual talks, which is the main global mechanism for limiting climate change.
The next climate talks — called COP29 — will be held in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku in November and the Brazilian city of Belem will host the crucial COP30 talks in 2025.
Brisbane, Sydney and Adelaide are all keen to host the next summit, which will see about 300,000 people from around the world attend the climate conference and the multitude of events surrounding it.
A report co-authored by the Climate Council of Australia and the Smart Energy Council found the economic benefits for the host city would be substantial.
“We’re talking about an event that is probably about four times the size of an AFL grand final, so you’re looking at an economic boost immediately of about $100-$200 million (US$66 million- US$133 million),” the Smart Energy Council’s international director, Richie Merzian, said.
The report points to the United Kingdom government’s assessment of Glasgow hosting COP26 talks in 2021, which found a net economic benefit to the UK of about $1 billion (US$665 million).
“There’s [a] longer-term benefit because the whole city is part of this big transition narrative, so there’s multiple trade deals and investment that happen alongside it,” Merzian said.
The joint Australia-Pacific bid has secured public support from a number of key countries, but to succeed Australia needs Türkiye to agree to abandon its own bid.
It will require deft diplomacy, as there needs to be a consensus behind the successful bid.
“That’s a big diplomatic push. [The federal government] needs to spend its capital in doing that,” Merzian said.
“We’d love to see the foreign minister, the PM, get on the phones, get on the blower and make sure that Australia is all lined up and ready to go.
“The more time we have to prepare and use in the next two years, the better this opportunity can be both economically and diplomatically.”
Each year, a conference of the parties (COP) to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change meets to advance coordinated global efforts to limit global warming.
Its primary task currently is to oversee the Paris Agreement, struck in 2015, in which countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels via national targets that are strengthened every five years.
When Bowen officially launched the joint bid he described it as an opportunity to work closely with Pacific countries and elevate their case for stronger climate action.
The Climate Council and Smart Energy Council report, released on Wednesday, found a successful bid would strengthen Australia’s standing in the Pacific.
Climate Council fellow Wesley Morgan, who is also a research associate with UNSW’s Institute for Climate Risk and Response, points to the joint security benefits that would result from Australia and Pacific nations co-hosting COP31.
“If we want good relations with our Pacific neighbours, we need to be acting on what they see as their key security threat, which is climate change,” he said.
“And hosting the UN climate talks in partnership with the Pacific is a chance to demonstrate practical action to tackle the Pacific’s key security threat.”
Pacific countries have lobbied as a bloc in previous COP meetings and other international forums to push for stronger action on climate change, often beyond what Australia has been willing to commit to.
“Pacific countries are calling for a global phase-out of fossil fuel production and Australia right now remains a significant fossil fuel exporter,” Dr Morgan said.
“[But] it is a moment for Australia to signal its shift from a past as a fossil fuel heavyweight to our future as a clean energy powerhouse,” he said.
